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Posted To: MND NewsWireBoth overall construction spending and spending for residential purposes in October was little changed from September according to data released by the Census Bureau on Tuesday. Spending on both publicly and privately funded construction however was significantly higher than in October 2014 . Construction spending overall was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,107.4 billion during the month, a 1.0 percent increase over the September estimate of $1,096 billion and 13.0 percent higher than a year earlier when spending was $979.6 billion. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis construction spending in October totaled $101.1 billion and for all of 2015 through the end of October $888.1 billion in construction had been put in place. One year earlier the total year-to-date spending was $802.3...(read more)
Posted To: MBS CommentaryBond markets are in the midst of their best day of trading since October 2nd. For perspective, that says less about how strong things are today and more about how weak the past 2 months have been. For instance, Fannie 3.5s are up a mere quarter point on the day, and only 3/8ths of a point trough to peak, but that's enough to claim the top spot. 10yr yields are down 5.4bps (almost 9 from peak to trough) and that completely obliterates anything since early October. The point is that bond markets have either been selling-off or tepidly recovering for the past 2 months and today is the first day that stands out as something new and different. Why is this happening? At first glance, this morning's ISM report looks like a culprit . It came in under 50 for the first time since late 2012--the...(read more)
Posted To: MND NewsWireHome price appreciation, which had decelerated somewhat in September, regained momentum in October. CoreLogic's Home Price Index (HPI) dropped back to a 6.3 percent annual increase in September after rising by 6.9 percent each of the previous two months. In October it posted a 6.8 percent 12 month gain. Colorado posted the largest increase and the only one in double digits; prices there rose 10.5 percent from October 2014 to October 2015. The Pacific Northwest also fared well with appreciation in Washington of 9.6 percent and 9.4 percent in Oregon. Two states lost ground; prices in Mississippi fell 1.7 percent and were down in Louisiana by 0.2 percent. On a month-over-month basis the September HPI rose only 0.6 percent, one-half the July to August increase. From September to October the increase...(read more)
Posted To: Pipeline PressIn response to yesterday's blurb about the movie "Home Alone" being 25 years old Carol K. sent, "You know you're old when you watch 'Home Alone' and wonder how much their mortgage is." Pro Teck's Home Value Forecast for November identified that the majority of the top real estate markets are located on the West Coast. Four out of the ten CBSAs are at all-time highs, which include Bellingham, Portland, San Jose, and Seattle. Two out of the ten CBSAs are anticipated to hit new highs by the first quarter of 2017, which include Boise and Mount Vernon. The ten best performing metros include, Bellingham, WA, Boise City, ID, Modesto, CA, Mount Vernon, WA, Portland, OR, Sacramento, CA, San Jose, CA, Seattle, WA, Stockton, VA and Vallejo, CA. On the other end of the spectrum, some of the ten worst performing...(read more)
Posted To: MBS CommentaryThe end of November was a supportive environment for longer-dated Treasuries like 10yr notes and 30yr bonds. The MBS that most directly affect rate sheets tend to track more with this so-called "long end" of the yield curve. As such, rates have been stable to slightly lower for the past few weeks. Now we must ask ourselves if that was purely a byproduct of 2 temporary factors . The first factor would be the "month-end" trading environment. Most fund managers use industry benchmark indices (like Barclay's Aggregate Bond Index, which also includes specific indices for MBS and Treasuries) to determine the right mix of bonds in their portfolio. In other words, if a fund purports to hold 40% Treasuries, they're not just holding any random Treasuries, but a specific mix that averages out to the index...(read more)