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Posted To: MBS CommentaryMarkets were more active today, offering a nice little warm up for what promises to be an even more active day tomorrow. The movement came in waves, beginning with a strong bond market rally at the start of the European trading session. US Treasuries came along for the ride, resulting in slightly stronger morning levels for Treasuries and MBS. With German Bund yields pushed up against all-time lows, Treasuries took over the duty of providing cues for the rest of the bond market. There was big buying right after the 'pit' open, very likely linked to portfolio managers adjusting holdings for month-end. That buying brought yields low enough to trigger a bit of a snowball rally to start the day "Snowball rally" generally refers to short positions getting forced to become buyers...(read more)
Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates were slightly lower today, holding inside a low and narrow range that's been intact for nearly 2 weeks. The movement was small enough that some lenders are unchanged compared to yesterday, but they're the exception. The most prevalently-quoted conforming 30yr fixed rate for flawless scenarios is still a bit of a toss-up between 4.25% and 4.125%. Today's improvement tips the scales toward 50/50 whereas 4.125% was less prevalent yesterday. For about the same amount of time that rates have been low and stable, we've been anticipating the next 3 days in financial markets. In short, there is an impressive confluence of data and events that stands as good of a chance to break the monotony as anything. Rates could either bounce back up toward the previous 2014 range, or they could improve...(read more)
Posted To: MBS CommentaryThe day started out well for Treasuries and MBS for a variety of reasons. European bond markets have been the most reliable motivation for overnight movement in Treasuries and last night was no exception. This time around German Bund yields (a good benchmark for overall "EU bond markets") pushed into new all-time lows. The correlation with Treasuries was stark . 10yr yields saw their highest levels of the night just seconds before EU bond markets opened. Yields began moving lower right at the open and Treasuries followed immediately. Both EU and US trading leveled off by 5am, and then it was Treasuries' turn to lead. A glut of month-end buying came in just after 8:30am, and this in turn started a snowball of bond buying that further extended the gains. The early morning positivity...(read more)
Posted To: MND NewsWireHome price gains continued to slow in May, posting smaller annual increases than In April the S&P Dow Jones Indices said today. The Indices' Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Index was up 9.4 percent compared to May 2013 and the 20-City was 9.3 percent higher. In April the two composites posted annual increases of 10.9 and 10.8 percent respectively. Both Composites increased by 1.1 percent from April to May and for the second straight month all 20 cities had positive returns. But that's only true on an unadjusted basis. When it comes to to home price data, seasonal buying/selling trends tend to be kind to prices in the Spring and Summer months. Adjusting for those affects, prices were down 0.3 percent in May--the first seasonally-adjusted decline in more than 2 years. Regionally, Charlotte...(read more)
Posted To: Pipeline PressMy plan has always been pretty simple with my children: feed and clothe them in a loving home, make sure they get a college education followed by a good job, then at some point, send them an invoice. But I've been told by the San Francisco Fed that I should ask my accounts receivable gal to stop calling my oldest. In, Wage Growth Gap for Recent College Grads , Bart Hobijn and Leila Bengali writes, "Median starting wages of recent college graduates have not kept pace with median earnings for all workers over the past six years. This type of gap in wage growth also appeared after the 2001 recession and closed only late in the subsequent labor market recovery. The wage gap in the current recovery, however, is substantially larger and has lasted longer than in the past. The larger gap represents...(read more)